Aragorn⟶Q2 2026 Picks
Live · Q2 2026 View source
Disclaimer

Not financial advice. Personal research shared with friends. I hold every position listed. Past performance means nothing. Do your own homework. For new positions above €5,000 consult an AFM-licensed advisor.

Q2 2026 · Updated April 27

17 positions. €22.5K. Where I'm betting on the next decade.

A portfolio built around one worldview: AI accelerates everything, nuclear becomes inevitable, and the companies building the infrastructure layer outperform the companies building the apps. These are the current holdings and seven new picks for Q2 2026.

Invested
€22.5K
17 positions
Largest gain
+158%
POET · photonics
New picks
7
3 high conviction · 4 sized smaller
Underwater
3
TSLA · IONQ · ADPT

01Portfolio Composition

17 holdings

17 positions across 7 themes. The concentration in silicon photonics is intentional, the highest-conviction thesis. The gaps are why the Q2 list exists.

47% Silicon Photonics. Intentional concentration, not accidental. The thesis is wrong or the concentration is the feature.

Theme Tickers Weight
Silicon PhotonicsPOET · LITE · LASR · AAOI47%
AI InfrastructureAPLD · VRT · NVDA22%
Specialty SemisAMAT · TSEM · MRAM8%
Embodied AI / RoboticsTSLA · SYM · CGNX8%
AI Software / DefensePLTR7%
Platform AIGOOGL5%
Quantum / BiotechIONQ · ADPT3%

02All 17 Holdings

Returns scaled to +158% max

Returns shown where disclosed. Bars scaled symmetrically: positives grow right (green), drawdowns grow left (red), centered axis. POET sets the scale at +158%.

Full portfolio holdings as of April 2026
# Ticker Company Theme Position Return
01POETPOET TechnologiesSilicon Photonicslargest
+158%
02LITELumentumSilicon PhotonicsN/A
N/A
03LASRnLIGHTSilicon PhotonicsN/A
N/A
04APLDApplied DigitalAI InfrastructureN/A
+127%
05VRTVertivAI InfrastructureN/A
N/A
06NVDANVIDIAAI InfrastructureN/A
N/A
07PLTRPalantirAI Software / DefenseN/A
N/A
08TSLATeslaEmbodied AIN/A
−5.15%
09GOOGLAlphabetPlatform AIN/A
N/A
10AMATApplied MaterialsSemi EquipmentN/A
N/A
11MRAMEverspin TechnologiesPersistent Memory€561
+46.7%
12TSEMTower SemiconductorSpecialty Semis€478
+87.5%
13CGNXCognexMachine Vision€385
+51.2%
14IONQIonQQuantum Computing€232
−8.7%
15AAOIApplied OptoelectronicsSilicon Photonics€211
+24.4%
16SYMSymboticWarehouse Robotics€189
+11.8%
17ADPTAdaptive BiotechnologiesBiotech AI€115
−2.9%

Returns disclosed for positions with explicit values; others marked N/A. Position sizes shown as exact euros where reported. Snapshot date: April 27, 2026.

03Q2 2026 Picks

7 positions · DCA over months, not days

These fill the gaps in the portfolio. Three are highest-conviction buys; four sized smaller alongside.

>>Top 3 · highest conviction

Buy NASDAQ
~$482

ISRG

Intuitive Surgical

AI-accelerated medicine is moving from prediction to reality. Intuitive Surgical is where AI meets physical intervention in the human body. 11,395 surgical systems worldwide, 80%+ recurring revenue, Q1 2026 revenue up 23% with a 7% stock jump post-earnings. The da Vinci platform has the installed base, the proprioceptive data from millions of procedures, and the recurring revenue model to fund AI integration at scale. Ion lung biopsy procedures up 39% in Q1. When world models reach surgical precision, ISRG already has the physical layer.

Position €800-1,200 · DCA over 3-4 months

Gap filled:Medical robotics (zero exposure today)

Risk factors
  • 45x NTM earnings is premium; multiple compression risk in risk-off markets
  • Competition from CMR Surgical, Medtronic Hugo
  • US healthcare reimbursement policy changes
  • Long hospital capex sales cycles
Buy NYSE
~$122

CCJ

Cameco Corporation

Data center electricity demand nearly triples by 2030 (IEA: 415 TWh to 945-1,580 TWh). Nuclear is the only source delivering baseload reliability at that scale. Cameco is the world's largest publicly listed uranium producer at roughly 15% of global primary supply. A $2.6B long-term agreement with India's nuclear program just signed. And here's what nobody talks about: Russia supplies 40% of Western uranium enrichment. Every tightening sanction accelerates Cameco's contract book. The single best hedge against AI energy demand and Middle Eastern disruption simultaneously.

Position €800-1,200 · 5-10 year hold

Gap filled:Nuclear / power generation (zero exposure today)

Risk factors
  • Uranium spot price volatility (~$70-75/lb)
  • Mine operational issues (Cigar Lake, McArthur River)
  • New large-scale nuclear incident could collapse political support
  • Kazakhstan production risk via Kazatomprom joint venture
Buy NYSE
~$424

ETN

Eaton Corporation

Every data center needs two things: compute and power delivery. The media covers GPUs and cooling. Nobody covers what sits between the grid and the rack: switchgear, power distribution, transformers, power management. Eaton owns that invisible layer. Electrical Americas growing 10% organically, driven entirely by data center demand. The detail nobody else mentions: Eaton is co-engineering 800V DC power architecture directly with NVIDIA. That's joint R&D, not a supplier relationship. A $9.5B Boyd thermal acquisition closes next year at 70% growth. Q1 earnings on May 5 are the next catalyst.

Position €800-1,000 · DCA before and after May 5

Gap filled:Electrical infrastructure / power delivery (zero exposure)

Risk factors
  • ~35x NTM earnings, premium for an industrial
  • Boyd's $9.5B acquisition integration risk
  • Tariff exposure on electrical components
  • Economic slowdown could defer data center capex

>>4 more · sized smaller

Buy NASDAQ
~$95

MRVL

Marvell Technology

NVIDIA made a $2B strategic investment in Marvell on March 31, integrating their custom silicon into the NVLink Fusion ecosystem. Google is in active negotiations for two specialized AI chips. FY2026 revenue hit $8.2B (+42% YoY), guiding FY2027 above $11B. Custom XPU is how hyperscalers escape NVIDIA pricing constraints. Marvell builds those weapons. Stock up 30% in April alone; analyst PT at $121 implies the partnerships aren't fully priced. Average in over three months rather than chasing the run.

Position €600-900 · 3-month average
Risks
  • Competition from Broadcom for custom chip mandates
  • Google chip development still in negotiations, not contracted
  • Stock has already run 50% YTD
Buy NASDAQ
~$380-393

AVGO

Broadcom

CEO Hock Tan projected $100B+ in XPU revenue in FY2027 alone, more than 1.5x Broadcom's entire FY2025 revenue. Q1 AI semiconductor revenue came in at $8.4B (+106% YoY). Custom silicon partnerships with Google, Apple, Meta (extended through 2029), and NVIDIA. Broadcom is building weapons for every side of the AI war simultaneously. The safer play alongside MRVL: more diversified customer base, lower volatility. Size both as one custom-silicon allocation.

Position €600-800 · pair with MRVL
Risks
  • Google represents ~50% of AI revenue, single-customer concentration risk
  • Antitrust scrutiny in networking ASICs
  • VMware integration complexity (acquired 2023)
Buy NASDAQ
~$400-450

CRWD

CrowdStrike

Every new AI agent is a new endpoint. Every API call is a new vector. Cybersecurity attack surface expands geometrically with AI proliferation. CrowdStrike crossed $5B ARR (+24% YoY) with record net new ARR of $330.7M in Q4, an acceleration less than two years after the July 2024 outage. The resilience test was passed. Purple AI at 40% attach rate. The CEO calls it "mission-critical infrastructure: securing AI from GPU to agent to prompt." Watch for corrections toward $350-370 to build a position.

Position €600-800 · target dips toward $350
Risks
  • Residual trust deficit from 2024 outage (largely recovered)
  • Competition from Microsoft Security, Palo Alto Networks
  • ~50-60x forward earnings is premium
Buy NYSE ADR
~$131

BABA

Alibaba Group

China is a co-equal AI force. DeepSeek proved it in January. Alibaba's Qwen model family is the most downloaded open-source model on HuggingFace globally. AI investments nearly doubled quarter-over-quarter to $2.9B. Cloud revenue forecast at 40% YoY growth. The stock sits 31% below analyst consensus ($190-230) because of tariff panic that has already started reversing (+14% in April alone). At 10-12x forward P/E versus US tech at 25-40x, this is the asymmetric gap the worldview explicitly identifies. VIE structure is the real risk. Size accordingly, the highest-asymmetry position in this set.

Position €500-700 · highest asymmetry
Risks
  • VIE structure: no legal claim on mainland Chinese assets
  • US ADR delisting risk (SEC/PCAOB ongoing tension)
  • Taiwan conflict scenario would be catastrophic
  • Xi regulatory intervention (2021-style crackdown could repeat)

04Watch List

Not buying yet

Too early, too rich, or waiting for a specific catalyst.

Watch VST

Vistra Corp · NYSE · ~$157

Second-largest US nuclear operator. Amazon and Meta PPAs signed. Down 25% from 52-week high. Morgan Stanley maintains Overweight with $208 PT (April 21), 33% upside. Wait for consolidation. Constellation Energy is the cleaner nuclear pure-play entry right now; Vistra is the backup if CEG runs.

Watch S

SentinelOne · NYSE · ~$13

AI-native cybersecurity underdog. Down 45% from 12-month highs with 35% analyst upside consensus. CrowdStrike has the brand, the installed base, and the momentum. Watch S as a higher-upside spec if the whole sector re-rates broadly. Not ahead of CRWD.

Watch SYM

Symbotic · NASDAQ · ~$63

Already in the portfolio at €190. $22.5B backlog, 26% YoY revenue growth, expanding into healthcare and e-commerce. Not yet profitable. Add on dips rather than a new position. The humanoid pure-play IPOs (Figure, Physical Intelligence) may offer better robotics entries in 2027.

Watch BIDU

Baidu · NASDAQ · ~$85

The China robotaxi play. Apollo Go at 3.4M fully autonomous trips across 26 cities globally, with Uber partnerships in Abu Dhabi and Dubai. First-ever dividend plus $5B buyback. The Wuhan system failure (100+ robotaxis freezing, April 2026) is the operational risk shadowing autonomous-driving investments. Watch for stability through 2026 before adding as a second China position alongside BABA.

05Avoiding

Looks thematic, isn't

Three names that look thematic on the surface. Not buying.

Avoid ETFs

Pure-play sector ETFs

KWEB holds Pinduoduo alongside Baidu. ROBO holds Fanuc alongside ISRG. ETFs dilute conviction into generic exposure. The precise bets the worldview demands cannot be made through baskets. A stock picker with specific theses, and basket products are the antithesis of that approach.

Avoid INTC

Intel · NASDAQ

Looks thematic. Structurally a loser in every scenario the worldview describes. The Compression Singularity benefits ARM architectures, not x86. Gaudi has failed to gain meaningful hyperscaler traction. The foundry strategy is five years behind TSMC with no clear path to close. Intel is the stock the broken-prediction establishment is still recommending. That's the tell.

Avoid MSFT

Microsoft · NASDAQ

Thematically perfect. Priced perfectly too. At 30x+ forward earnings with every AI tailwind already visible and priced in, the risk-reward for a new position is poor. Already holding Alphabet as the platform-AI bet. If MSFT corrects 20%+ on an Azure growth miss, it gets interesting. Not at current levels.

06How I think about this

6 principles

Six rules that govern every position in this portfolio.

PRINCIPLE 01

The infrastructure layer is always underpriced

Everyone wants the AI app layer. I want the power cables, the uranium, the custom silicon, the surgical robots. The picks nobody's writing about until they've already tripled. Eaton. Cameco. ISRG before the hype cycle found them.

PRINCIPLE 02

Concentration is only a risk if the thesis is wrong

Silicon photonics is 47% of the portfolio. That's intentional. If AI interconnect demand plays out as I believe, the concentration is the feature. If I'm wrong, it's the bug. I accept the tradeoff rather than hide behind diversification theater.

PRINCIPLE 03

AI accelerates energy demand, it doesn't reduce it

Jevons Paradox: efficiency improvements increase total consumption. AI inference gets cheap, so everyone does more of it. Data center electricity demand triples by 2030. That's not a warning. That's a thesis. Nuclear, power delivery, uranium are all beneficiaries.

PRINCIPLE 04

Geopolitical disruption is a tail-wind, not a head-wind

Strait of Hormuz closes? European energy prices spike, nuclear becomes politically mandatory. Russia sanctions tighten? Western uranium urgency increases. The portfolio isn't hedged against geopolitics. It's positioned to benefit from the specific disruptions I think are most likely.

PRINCIPLE 05

China is co-equal, not secondary

DeepSeek proved in January 2026 that Chinese AI matches Western frontier performance at a fraction of the cost. The portfolio had zero China exposure while the worldview explicitly predicted Chinese AI leadership. BABA is the fix for that contradiction.

PRINCIPLE 06

Consensus picks are already priced

If every analyst rates it Buy and every podcast covers it, the insight is gone. The edge lives in the unsexy layer below the headline. Eaton over NVIDIA. Cameco over the hyperscalers. Custom silicon over GPU monoculture. The next thing beats the current thing, every time.